新型计算机模型或可预测人群对流行病产生的反应

  有时候对疾病暴发作出应答或许会使得事情变得更糟，比如当人们惊恐逃跑时就会将疾病扩散到一些新的区域，因此预测这种过度反应的能力或许可以帮助公共卫生官员采取措施来有效控制危险。近日，来自麻省理工学院的研究人员开发了一种新型的计算机模型，其可以对医院、社会媒体及其它来源所收集的数据进行结合分析，从而来帮助预测对疾病暴发的反应

  在很多情况下，对疾病暴发的反应往往会比疾病自身引发的危害要大，比如减少旅行和分发的货品或许会产生一定的经济损失，或者会引发一些加速疾病扩散的暴动行为发生；文章中研究人员分析了一些疾病暴发的数据，比如2009年在墨西哥和香港暴发的H1N1疫情，2003年在香港暴发的SARS，研究者表示，他们开发的模型可以精确清楚再现当时疾病暴发时人群的行为。

  在这些疾病暴发的案例中，公众的反应同疾病实际的风险往往是不相称的，一般来讲，罕见疾病或者不平常的疾病往往得到的关注要高于其实际的风险，比如，香港暴发的SARS相比H1N1产生了较强的公共反应，但实际上H1N1感染率是SARS的数百倍。研究者Gonzalez说道，当然这种分析并不能解决目前正在西非暴发的埃博拉疫情，本文中我们开发的计算机模型可以分析社会数据和医学数据，从而使得分析人群对疾病的反应变得更加简单。

  如果利用该模型将来可以预测一些不良的社会或者经济事件，那么获将帮助挽救很多无辜的生命及经济价值，研究人员Olivia Woolley Meza指出，在很好地理解人群对流行病的产生反应后，当前的政策或许并不能有效控制疾病的扩散，但其或许可以预测一些社会反应；而本文中研究人员开发的模型或可帮助有效控制流行病的暴发，以及预测人群对疾病的反应，为有效减缓疾病带来的影响提供了一定的帮助。（转化医学网360zhyx.com）

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Now a new computer model could provide a way of making such forecasts, based on a combination of data collected from hospitals, social media, and other sources. The model was developed by researchers at MIT, Draper Laboratory, and Ascel Bio, and is described in a paper published in the journal Interface.

The research grew out of earlier studies of how behavior spreads through social networks, explains co-author Marta Gonzalez, an assistant professor of civil and environmental engineering at MIT. The spread of information -- and misinformation -- about disease outbreaks "had not been studied, and it's hard to get detailed information on the panic reactions," Gonzalez says. "How do you quantify panic?"

One way of analyzing those reactions is by studying news reporting on outbreaks, as well as messages posted on social media, and comparing those with data from hospital records about the actual incidence of the disease.

In many cases, the reaction to an outbreak can cause more harm than the disease itself: For example, the researchers say, curtailing travel and distribution of goods can create economic damage, or even lead to rioting and other behavior that can exacerbates a disease's spread. Wide publicity of an outbreak can also cause health care facilities to be overrun by people concerned about minor symptoms, potentially making it difficult for those affected by the disease to obtain the care they need, the researchers add......